Asset Allocation Calculator｜资产配置计算器

资产配置计算器 | Asset Allocation Calculator

资产配置计算器 Asset Allocation Calculator

设定股 / 债 / 现金的权重，并输入各自的预期年化收益与波动率，估算组合的预期年化收益、波动率与目标期限下的区间表现。
Set weights for stocks/bonds/cash plus expected annual return & volatility to estimate portfolio expected return, volatility, and scenario range.

1. 输入参数 · Parameters
仅用于展示“未来金额区间”的直观结果；不影响年化收益/波动的计算逻辑。
Only used to show future value range; it does not change the annual return/volatility calculation itself.
用于把“年化预期收益/波动率”映射到 N 年后的区间（假设年复利与波动按 √t 缩放）。
Maps annual return/volatility into an N-year range (assumes annual compounding and volatility scales by √t).
股票 Stock
债券 Bond
现金 Cash
当前合计：100% / Sum: 100% 提示：可先用 60/40 或 70/20/10 做快速对比 · Tip: try 60/40 or 70/20/10
权重代表你计划长期保持的目标比例。若市场波动导致比例偏离，通常会通过再平衡（rebalancing）拉回目标。
Weights represent your target long-term mix. Market moves can drift weights; rebalancing is used to restore targets.
股票 Stock
债券 Bond
现金 Cash
预期收益不是承诺回报，只是你用于“规划与对比”的输入参数。
Expected returns are not guaranteed; they are inputs for planning and comparisons.
股票 Stock
债券 Bond
现金 Cash
波动率可理解为“典型年份的上下浮动幅度”。它不等于最大回撤，但能用来做风险量级比较。
Volatility is a “typical annual up/down swing” measure. It’s not max drawdown, but useful for comparing risk magnitude.
股-债 Stock-Bond
股-现 Stock-Cash
债-现 Bond-Cash
默认相关性只是“常见示例”，并非任何市场的固定事实。你也可以全部填 0（即假设彼此独立）。
Default correlations are only examples, not a universal truth. You may set all to 0 (assume independence).
相关性范围为 -1 到 1：
-1 表示强烈反向，0 表示弱相关/不相关，1 表示强烈同向。
Correlation ranges from -1 to 1: -1 strongly opposite, 0 weak/none, 1 strongly move together.
3. 使用说明 · Notes
  • 这是什么工具？ · What is this?
    这是一个“资产配置假设计算器”，用于把你设定的股/债/现金比例与参数（预期收益、波动、相关性）转换成组合层面的指标：预期年化收益、组合波动率、以及 N 年后可能的金额区间。
    This is an assumption-based asset allocation calculator. It converts your inputs (weights, expected return, volatility, correlation) into portfolio-level metrics: expected annual return, portfolio volatility, and a possible N-year value range.
  • “预期收益”不是预测，也不是承诺 · Expected return is not a promise
    预期收益只是你用于规划的“输入参数”。现实市场会经历牛熊切换、政策变化、流动性冲击等，长期平均不等于每一年都如此。
    Expected return is an input for planning only. Markets can shift regimes (bull/bear), face policy changes and liquidity shocks; long-term averages do not describe every single year.
  • 如何理解“波动率”？ · How to interpret volatility?
    波动率可以粗略理解为“典型年份的上下浮动尺度”。比如年化波动 15% 并不表示最多只跌 15%，也不表示一定会上下刚好 15%，它更多是衡量风险强弱的“量纲”。
    Volatility is a rough scale of typical annual swings. A 15% volatility does not mean max drawdown is 15%, nor that returns will be exactly ±15%. It is mainly a risk magnitude metric.
  • 相关性为什么重要？ · Why does correlation matter?
    如果资产彼此同涨同跌（相关性接近 1），组合的分散效果会变差；如果部分资产呈负相关（例如在某些时期股债负相关），组合波动可能会降低。
    When assets move together (correlation near 1), diversification is weaker. When some assets are negatively correlated (e.g., stocks vs bonds in certain regimes), portfolio volatility may be reduced.
  • 区间结果怎么来的？ · How is the range computed?
    本工具用一个常见的“统计近似”做直观展示：
    N 年后区间 ≈ 以（预期年化收益 ± 年化波动×√N）作为年化增长率，再做复利计算。
    This tool uses a simple statistical approximation for intuition: it treats (expected annual return ± annual volatility×√N) as an annualized growth rate, then compounds it.
    重要提醒 · Important: 这不是严格的概率分布推导，也不等于真实的“95% 置信区间”。它更像是：给你一个“风险尺度”的直观范围，帮助你做方案对比。
  • 建议怎么用？ · Suggested workflow
    ① 先定目标：你更在意增长（收益）还是更在意稳定（波动）？
    ② 再做对比：把 60/30/10、70/20/10、80/20/0 等方案都跑一遍，观察预期收益提升带来多大波动上升。
    ③ 最后落地：如果你计划执行“再平衡”，请把权重当作“目标配比”，而不是“买入一次就不动”。
    (1) Set your objective: growth vs stability. (2) Compare mixes: run multiple allocations and see how much volatility rises per unit return. (3) Implement: if you rebalance, weights are targets, not “buy once and never adjust”.
  • 不包含哪些内容？ · What’s not included?
    税费、交易成本、管理费、滑点、通胀、汇率、尾部风险、极端回撤、再平衡频率与路径依赖等，都未纳入。
    Taxes, transaction costs, fund fees, inflation, FX, tail risk, max drawdown, rebalancing frequency, and path dependency are not modeled here.

免责声明：本工具仅用于学习、估算与方案对比，不构成任何投资建议。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。
Disclaimer: For education and estimation only. This is not investment advice. Investing involves risk.