• 你在模拟什么？ · What are we simulating?
  中文： 你给出“预期年化收益”和“年化波动率”，工具用随机路径去模拟未来每个月的涨跌，并在期末汇总出一个“可能结果分布”。这不是预测某个确定值，而是帮助你建立“区间思维”。
  English: You provide an expected annual return and annual volatility. The tool simulates random monthly paths and summarizes an ending-value distribution. It’s not a single-point forecast—it’s for building range-based thinking.
• 中位数 vs 平均值 · Median vs Mean
  中文： 在“对数正态”分布下，平均值往往会被少数极端高收益路径拉高；中位数更像“典型结果”。投资规划时，很多人更关心中位数和分位区间。
  English: With lognormal outcomes, the mean is often pulled up by a small number of very large winners. The median usually reflects a more “typical” outcome. For planning, percentiles and the median can be more informative than the mean.
• 波动率不是“坏事”，但它会放大不确定性 · Volatility isn’t always “bad” — it widens uncertainty
  中文： 波动率越大，你看到的“上界可能更高、下界可能更低”。这意味着：你需要更强的风险承受能力、更长的持有时间、或更合理的仓位与分散。
  English: Higher volatility increases both upside potential and downside risk. It typically requires higher risk tolerance, longer holding periods, and/or better diversification and position sizing.
• “亏损概率”如何理解？ · How to interpret “Probability of Loss”
  中文： 这里的亏损口径是：期末资产是否小于“总投入”（初始资金 + 所有定投）。它是一个“结果概率”，不是说中间过程没有回撤；很多路径会经历大幅回撤后又恢复。
  English: Loss here means: ending value is below total contributed (initial + contributions). It’s an outcome probability, not a statement about drawdowns along the way—many paths can dip deeply and later recover.
• 为什么需要“目标金额”？ · Why set a target?
  中文： 目标达成概率能帮助你把“收益假设”转成更直观的决策问题：在当前假设与投入节奏下，达到某个目标的把握有多大？如果概率太低，你可以尝试调整：投入、期限、预期收益（更保守/更积极）、或降低波动（更分散）。
  English: Target probability turns assumptions into a decision-oriented question: under your return/volatility assumptions and contribution plan, how likely are you to reach a goal? If the probability is too low, try adjusting contributions, horizon, assumptions, or diversification.
• 参数怎么填更“现实”？ · How to pick more realistic inputs?
  中文： 预期收益与波动率通常来自：历史回测（长期）、资产配置（股票/债券比例）、或你对策略的长期判断。一般建议做三组情景：保守 / 基准 / 乐观，然后比较区间与亏损概率，而不是只盯一组数字。
  English: Expected return and volatility can be informed by long-run history, asset allocation (e.g., stock/bond mix), or your strategy’s long-term view. A practical approach is to run three scenarios—conservative / base / optimistic—and compare ranges and loss probabilities rather than fixating on one set of numbers.
• 重要限制 · Key limitations (very important)
  中文： 本工具使用简化模型：收益独立同分布、波动恒定、没有交易成本/税费/滑点、没有极端事件的“肥尾”结构，也没有考虑再平衡与现金流在真实市场中的复杂行为。因此结果仅用于学习与估算，不构成任何投资建议。
  English: This is a simplified model: i.i.d. returns, constant volatility, no fees/taxes/slippage, and limited handling of fat tails and extreme events. It also ignores rebalancing and many real-world market frictions. Use it for education and rough estimation only—this is not investment advice.
• 一个实用的用法 · A practical workflow
  中文： 先固定期限与投入（更接近你能控制的变量），然后分别调“收益/波动”做情景对比。你会更清楚：自己承担的到底是“收益不足”的风险，还是“波动过大导致路径风险/心态崩盘”的风险。
  English: First fix the horizon and contribution plan (things you can control), then vary return/volatility assumptions across scenarios. This helps you see whether your main risk is “insufficient returns” or “path/volatility risk that breaks discipline”.

免责声明 / Disclaimer：本页面内容仅用于教育与测算参考，不构成投资建议或收益承诺。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。
This page is for educational and estimation purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or any return guarantee. Investing involves risk.